Why Ukraine must win
A sense of defeatism hangs over the war in Ukraine. The Russian invasion is creeping forward and the frontline is showing cracks. President Putin is becoming more reckless in his attacks on civilians and cities. North Korean troops have brazenly joined the Russians in combat in Europe and both countries get away with it. Ukraine's allies follow Russian escalation with de-escalation. President Zelensky's peace plan that seeks security for a partially free Ukraine in NATO is not gaining traction anywhere. Western support with weapons and money, on the other hand, is slowing down and shrinking. The new American president will not be a second Biden in any event, while political unity within Europe is crumbling and Ukraine's capacity for sacrifice is shrinking. Next up is winter.
Given all this, we have to ask ourselves: what would be the consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine? First of all, a hammer blow for Ukraine itself. Occupied or not, Ukrainians would feel betrayed in their struggle for survival, abandoned by the West and the western ideals for which they gave their lives. An unstable country would await us, full of politically toxic emotions of frustration, humiliation and revenge. An economically destroyed playground where Russia could continue to stoke and poke.
A hammer blow for Europe as well, in safety, security and peace. A de facto victory for Putin would mean a Russian threat along the entire European-Russian border zone. A new Cold War for a buffer zone between Europe and Russia. Also a political hammer blow because a Russian victory would bring political divisions within Europe to the surface and threaten the European Union with paralysis. Just think of Hungary, Austria, Slovakia or Italy, or of the growing pro-Russian parties in Germany and France.
A hammer blow for democracy that has been on the decline as a model of governance in the world for over fifteen years. Ukraine would then provide empirical proof that the new autocracy is stronger than the old democracies in Europe and America. A boost for would-be autocrats and for regimes with territorial ambitions against weaker neighbouring countries. The moral authority of democracy and human rights would be imperiled and the great advocates of an alternative global order would score a historic win, China in the first place.
With that, Taiwan would also receive a hammer blow. If Ukraine loses, China will learn that the US and Europe are in decline. That we are no longer willing or able to make the sacrifices in prosperity or human lives that war requires. That, when push comes to shove, we will back down if the aggressor holds out long enough. That our guarantees of security and support will eventually dry up in our desire for comfort. That would make a free and democratic Taiwan a sitting duck.
A hammer blow for the United States too. For a fraction of the cost of a real war – $90 billion in support for Ukraine today compared to several trillion dollars for the war in Iraq – and without American bloodshed, Ukraine is fighting a proxy war for US global leadership. Losing in Kiev would mean a significant loss of status, influence and power in Washington, with more strategic risks and dangers in a world that would be drifting further apart. That world would come to undermine American interests – in security, in prosperity and in geopolitics.
The world after Ukraine’s defeat would a world that is no longer safe for peace and democracy. A world in which a nuclear superpower has successfully deployed nuclear blackmail in a war of invasion. That hammer blow would accelerate a global arms race, including a nuclear arms race in which technological innovations can provide rogue regimes with the most powerful weapons.
The cost of a Ukrainian defeat is clearly incalculable. That is why we must do much more and support much more, so that victory will eventually follow. Provided political, business and diplomatic leadership mobilizes the large reserves of power and wealth that are ours, we can and will prevail without doubt. We owe it not only to the brave Ukrainian people whose war is our war too, but to the younger generations, to make the world once more safe again for democracy and peace. Yes, we can.
